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NHNE Y2K Report 1
Monday, November 11, 1998

 

"News, Inspiration,
& Consumer Protection
for Spiritual Seekers"

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NHNE Y2K Report 1
Monday, November 9, 1998

This weekly news report contains the best, most important Y2K news stories we are aware of.

NHNE is also the force behind the wild2k
Website: http://www.wild2k.com/
"The Best of the Best of Y2K"

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Our work is made possible by the kind and generous support of people everywhere who want to solve the fundamental mysteries of life, make a graceful passage through the turbulent times in which we live, and help give birth to a new, more spirit-filled and loving world.

You can support NHNE by joining our Friends of NHNE program and/or through tax-deductible donations. See the end of this update for details.

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Total NHNE Mailing List:
Last Mailing: 1169
This Mailing: 1175

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"The real issue underneath the compelling dangers of Y2K is far more daunting than the remediation, triage and damage control of our eroding computer networks: it is the need for a more sustainable, renewable, spiritually-fulfilling way of life."

--- David La Chapelle, "The Real Y2K Problem"

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CONTENTS:

INTRODUCTION:

From the Founder & Publisher
From the Editor-in-Chief

Y2K HEADLINES:

Washington D.C. in Trouble
Firms Missing Y2K Deadlines
Boeing: Y2K by the Book
Brokers Charged for Y2K Delays
Promises to Keep
Insurance Firms Consider Grounding Airlines
U.S. Y2K Action Week
Majority of Small Businesses in U.S. Have No Y2K Plan
Are Canadians too Complacent?
Executives Stockpiling for Y2K
Solar Storms in 2000 Will Add to Chaos
Montreal Firefighters Almost Ran Out of Water

Y2K RESOURCES:

NHNE-Sedona Task Force Videos
Y2k People Finding People
Free Compliance Database
Microsoft: Compliant with Minor Issues Products
Emergency Food Calculator

Y2K STORIES:

Mars, Venus & Y2K
Y2K & the Bell Curve
Meteor Storm Approaching
Y2K & Environmentalism
For Sale: Y2K Escapes
Year 2000 Expected to Trigger Run on Cash
Inside a Midwest Mortgage Company
IRS to Be Y2K Ready by Jan '99
$3.4B Y2K Budget
Japanese Banks in Big Trouble
Gartner Group Report
Emergency Planning for the Year 2000
Wisconsin National Guard Prepares
Canadian Business Takes Notice
An Interview with John Koskinen
How to Order NIGHTLINE'S Y2K Report
Koskinen's Rosey Picture Challenged
Summary of Oversight Findings and Recommendations

Y2K LIGHTER SIDE:

Kenya Commissions Millennium Bug Report
100 GB Bug Threat
A Y2K Silver Bullet

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FROM THE FOUNDER & PUBLISHER:

Welcome to The NHNE Y2K Report!

After months of behind-the-scenes preparation, we are finally ready to launch a new NHNE publication: The NHNE Y2K Report. As the evidence continues to mount that the Y2K (Year 2000) Computer Bug is going to be a major catalyst for change, James Gregory is returning as the Editor-in-Chief of our new weekly Y2K-focused News Report. Our intention is to track the most important Y2K-oriented news of the week so all of us can be as informed as possible concerning all aspects of Y2K. We will also be paying close attention to Y2K's deeper implications for personal growth and planetary transformation and be encouraging positive, constructive, empowering responses to Y2K.

One of the most exciting aspects of our new Y2K report is that we will also be producing a companion TV show. Using the written report as a starting point, we'll discuss the week's most important news stories and then present interviews, panel discussions, and feature stories with lay people and experts on a wide variety of other Y2K-related topics. Of particular interest to NHNE readers, will be our focus on Y2K as an opportunity to foster Earth, spirit and people-friendly courses of action.

Along with serving as Editor-in-Chief of the online version of our weekly report, James will also be co-hosting the television version of the program with me. To begin with, the program will be primarily filmed in Sedona, Arizona, and broadcast to our local community. Once we have a developed a solid format, we plan to syndicate the program nationally and broadcast it on the Internet. Our Y2K coverage will also expand from Sedona and our local communities to include Y2K efforts around the country. In some cases, we will travel to other parts of the country to report on their efforts. In most cases we will be asking others to film important happenings in their part of the world and then send them to us to include in the program. If things go according to plan, our first show will air sometime in the next couple of weeks.

As we get up to speed in this new media, we would like to begin creating a grassroots network of NHNE fans and supporters who serve as weekly outlets for the new program. Specifically, we would like to get as many of you as possible showing the weekly show in your part of the country. Along with helping us build a network of like-minded people who are interested in keeping posted on all aspects of Y2K, one of the main goals of this network would be to help others organize Y2K efforts in their part of the world. By watching what we are up to in Sedona (and also see what others are up to in other parts of the country and world), Y2K-related information, inspiration, and practical know-how can be rapidly disseminated.

If you are interested in participating in this program (either by serving as an outlet in your part of the world, or filming local Y2K events to share with our growing network, or both), drop me a line at "nhne@nhne.com".

We are also looking for people who would like to contribute financially to these efforts. Our Friends of NHNE program, which continues to underwrite all of our projects, needs more monthly contributors (see the end of this report for details). We also need funds to cover our initial television production costs. All contributions to NHNE -- both those provided by our monthly Friends of NHNE program, as well as spontaneous, one-time "booster shots" -- are tax deductible.

I hope many of you will feel guided to support these efforts -- and use them to inform and prepare your friends, neighborhoods and communities.

As you will soon see from the information contained in this first report, there is no shortage of ominous stories. Nor is there a shortage of people reacting to these stories in unbalanced, half-baked and counterproductive ways. What there is a shortage of, and what I hope our network can help provide, are people who can gather the hard facts they need to make informed decisions concerning Y2K and then act on this information in a way that inspires, ennobles and motivates. Counteracting the tendency to be afraid, to deny the facts, to be overwhelmed, and to fall into a survivalist mentality, will no doubt be some of the major challenges we all face -- especially as the public at large begins to realize how serious Y2K is.

Here's hoping you and I, and others like us, can turn the rising tide of fearful Y2K-related news around with an equally powerful tide of innovative solutions, community-oriented projects, and cheerful, "we'll find our way through this together" responses...

With Love & Best Wishes,
David Sunfellow

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FROM THE EDITOR-IN-CHIEF:

Hi Folks.

It has been over a year since I moved to Ottawa, Canada to be with my new wife, Mary Anne and instant family of Danya (18) and Pascal (13). Learning how to be a good husband and father has been a wonderful experience for me, but very challenging. On top of all that I have been working hard to make a living and support my family.

Through all of this, I have continued to follow the activities of NHNE as it pursued the Millennium Bug and all its ramifications. Things have now progressed to the point where David Sunfellow and I feel that a weekly Y2K update is necessary.

The NHNE Y2K Report is the first of such weekly publications. It serves a number of functions:

- To provide the latest Y2K news and developments around the world.

- To provide a forum for free exchange of information.

- To help people prepare for potential disruptions.

- To explore ways of flourishing before, during and after Y2K that are Earth and people-friendly.

- To provide content for the television version of the weekly NHNE Y2K Report.

As with the its predecessor, the NHNE NEWS BRIEF, the NHNE Y2K UPDATE depends on you, its readers, for content and comments. We all share a certain responsibility for the predicament we find ourselves in, and for finding elegant and graceful ways to cope and flourish.

It is a pleasure to be back.

James Gregory
Editor-in-Chief

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Y2K HEADLINES:

WASHINGTON D.C. IN TROUBLE
(Source: THE WASHINGTON POST, 3/10/98, via SANGER'S REVIEW OF Y2K NEWS REPORTS)

Washington, D.C. officials had some bad news for Congress earlier this month concerning their efforts to fix the Year 2000 problem: it will cost the District six times more than has been budgeted. It gets worse. Even if the additional $117 million can be found, the city is so far behind that it won't be able to finish the necessary computer repairs in time anyway. D.C. Chief Technology Officer Suzanne Peck told a House panel that of the city's 336 computer systems, only 25 percent are confirmed to be free of flaws that could cause them to malfunction on Jan. 1, 2000. The backlog is due to the fact that the city did not focus in earnest on the problem until this past June. In addition to trying to fix what they can, city staff members are now scrambling to devise backup systems to avoid major service interruptions. (JG)

Link: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WParch/1998-10/03/068f-100398-idx.html

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FIRMS MISSING Y2K DEADLINES
(Source: Emma Connors, THE AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW, 11/3/98 via SANGER'S REVIEW OF Y2K NEWS REPORTS)

CAP GEMINI AMERICA, a services supplier that is tracking the Y2K progress of 127 public and private sector organizations, announced 90 per cent of the organizations they are tracking had missed Y2K deadlines. This is up from 78 per cent in April. They also announced that 44 per cent of the companies they are tracking experienced 2000-related failures in the form of processing disruptions or financial miscalculations. In April, only 40 per cent reported such failures. The CAP GEMINI AMERICA survey also found nine out of 10 of respondents are developing contingency plans to avoid 2000-related failures and that local organizations have also seen deadlines blow out as the full scale of their projects is revealed. The researchers concluded this "reflects a growing sense of realism about the magnitude of the year 2000 challenge." (DS&JG)

Link: http://www.afr.com.au/content/981103/inform/inform7.html

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BOEING: Y2K BY THE BOOK
(Thanks to Rose Marie Licher for this tip)

With over 250 million lines of codes, and a wide variety of products and services to deal with, including aviation, defense, and space products, BOEING is still not fully compliant. They have, however, publicly declared that "there are no Year 2000 safety-of-flight concerns related to any Boeing airplanes." How come? Because unlike many other major companies, BOEING has been working on Y2K since 1993. It also has one of the most agressive Y2K track records (and websites) around. Boeing is, however, concerned about the 920 companies they rely upon for parts, many of which are sole providers... (DS)

Link: http://www.boeing.com/companyoffices/aboutus/y2k/

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BROKERS CHARGED FOR Y2K DELAYS
(Sources: ASSOCIATED PRESS via ABCNEWS.COM and SANGER'S REVIEW OF Y2K, 10/26/98)

96 U.S. brokerage firms have been charged with failing to file complete reports by Aug. 31 about their Y2K readiness. 56 of the firms have been fined a total of $335,000; disciplinary proceedings are continuing against the remaining 40. The firms are relatively small and not widely known Wall Street names. SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION (SEC) Chairman Arthur Levitt said, "The commission takes the Year 2000 computer problem very seriously and has required [brokerage firms] to do the same." The financial industry is believed to be especially vulnerable to Year 2000 glitches, and some experts are concerned that consumers could lose faith in the security of their banks, other financial institutions and the stock markets. The SEC's action "is a wake-up call" for other brokerage firms as well as mutual funds and publicly traded companies, said Amy L. Goodman, a former SEC attorney. This is the first such Y2K crackdown by the market watchdog agency. (JG)

Link: http://www.abcnews.com/sections/business/DailyNews/y2k_brokers981020/index.html

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PROMISES TO KEEP
(Source: Peter de Jager, YEAR 2000 INFORMATION CENTER, 30/10/98)

We're approaching the end of 1998 and it's time to start hearing some good news. Corporations have made promises to their customers and to their shareholders: "Trust us, we'll fix this." Peter de Jager of the YEAR 2000 INFORMATION CENTER says, "No reasonable person expects all projects to be on time, but we'd really like to hear what [they] have fixed." de Jager has thrown out the following challenge to companies: If you have made promises about Y2K compliance, what of your services will REALLY be available come January 2000? He is offering to post company responses on his Web site in a section called "Y2K Promises Kept."

Link: http://www.year2000.com/y2ky2kpromises.html

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INSURANCE FIRMS CONSIDER GROUNDING AIRLINES
(Source: Neil Winton, REUTERS/NANDO.NET 3/11/98 via SANGER'S REVIEW OF Y2K NEWS REPORTS)

The insurance industry could veto airlines' desire to operate on Jan. 1, 2000, regardless of arguments about whether their computer systems are immune from infection by the Year 2000 bug, says Andy Kyte, analyst at information technology consultancy GARTNER GROUP. If insurance companies decided to withdraw cover for any year 2000 problem, this would force airlines to stay on the ground. This follows an announcement last month by KLM's Chief Information Officer, Max Rens, who said he was not certain whether the airline could operate flights safely on Jan. 1, 2000. KLM claimed it had done everything it could to ensure the safety of operations, but was being let down by governments responsible for airports and air traffic control systems. (JG)

Link: http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/info/110398/info11_11766_body.html

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U.S. Y2K ACTION WEEK (Source: Jack Gribben, PRESIDENT'S COUNCIL ON YEAR 2000 CONVERSION, 2/10/98)

In declaring the week of October 19-23 "National Y2K Action Week," John A. Koskinen, Chair of the PRESIDENT'S COUNCIL ON YEAR 2000 CONVERSION, announced: "We are concerned that many of the nation's small and medium-sized businesses aren't taking the year 2000 problem seriously." During the week, federal agencies including the SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION (SBA), the DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (DOC), the DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (USDA), and the SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION (SSA) conducted hundreds of educational events. These outreach activities were designed to help managers of small and medium-sized businesses assess how their businesses may be vulnerable to the Y2K problem both in their own systems and in relationships with outside service providers; develop strategies for remediation and replacement work; find technical resources for addressing the problem; and formulate contingency plans. (JG)

Link: http://www.y2k.gov/new/y2kaction.htm

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MAJORITY OF SMALL BUSINESSES IN U.S. HAVE NO Y2K PLAN
(Source: William Dennis, NATIONAL FEDERATION OF INDEPENDENT BUSINESS FOUNDATION, 7/10/98 via GARY NORTH'S Y2K LINKS & FORUM)

According to William Dennis of the NATIONAL FEDERATION OF INDEPENDENT BUSINESS FOUNDATION, 80 percent of American small businesses are at risk from their own non-compliant computer systems. Despite this, a majority of small business owners plan no action. Should nothing change, approximately 330,000 businesses would have to shut down on January 1, 2000, and stay closed until their Y2K problem are fixed. Small businesses employ a majority of the workers in the U.S. (JG)

Link: http://www.senate.gov/~y2k/statements/100798dennis.html

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ARE CANADIANS TOO COMPLACENT?
(Source: Chris Cobb, THE OTTAWA CITIZEN, 1/11/98 via SANGER'S REVIEW OF Y2K NEWS REPORTS)

In the first attempt to test public awareness and attitudes about the potential problem of Y2K, a poll commissioned by INDUSTRY CANADA reveals that while more than three out of four Canadians have heard of the millennium bug, 80 per cent have full confidence that the federal government and business will have little difficulty finding the cure if the millennium bug does prove to be bothersome. Only 23 percent feel the bug will create serious problems. Peter de Jager, a Canadian computer consultant who makes a living from advising how to cure the millennium bug, says Canadians may be in for a shock. "Canadians are a bit too complacent. They shouldn't assume that everything is going to be taken care of. Will it be the end of the world? Should be people head for the hills? No. But every Canadian will be affected."

Link: http://www.ottawacitizen.com/national/981101/1982502.html

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EXECUTIVES STOCKPILING FOR Y2K
(Source: Vladimir Z. Nuri, NY TIMES NEWS SERVICE, 14/10/98)

A recent survey by CIO MAGAZINE, a publication for chief information officers, chief executives and vice presidents of large corporations, has discovered that the nation's top executives are taking the Y2K threat personally. Of the 330 executives surveyed, 56 percent said they believed the millennium bug would not be fixed in time; 13 percent were upgrading personal security; 11 percent were buying generators and wood stoves; and 10 percent said they planned to stockpile canned goods. CIO Magazine Editor-in-Chief, Abbie Lundberg, elaborates: "They're not thinking about building bunkers and learning how to tan hides, but they are thinking about what happens if there are no lights and no phone service for a while." In addition, 75 percent of the executives recommended that individuals check to make sure their banks are prepared for the Year 2000. (JG)

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SOLAR STORMS IN 2000 WILL ADD TO CHAOS
(Source: GOVERNMENT COMPUTER NEWS, 19/10/98 via GARY NORTH'S Y2K LINKS & FORUMS)

Just to make matters worse, in the Year 2000 the 11-year sunspot cycle will reach its maximum. Solar and geomagnetic events such as ion bombardments and explosions on the surface of the sun can damage or knock out satellite transmissions, hamper navigation systems, cut electric power and bring down telephone systems. "We're going to have a huge storm [about] Jan. 1, 2000, so people won't know what to blame it on," said Ernie Hildner, director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric ADMINISTRATION'S SPACE ENVIRONMENT CENTER in Boulder, CO. On the positive side, due to increased signal skipping, short wave radios will be able to send and receive transmissions over much greater distances. (JG)

Link: http://www.ntgov.com/gcn/gcn/1998/october19/33.htm

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MONTREAL FIREFIGHTERS ALMOST RAN OUT OF WATER
(Source: George Kalogerakis, MONTREAL GAZETTE, 25/9/98 via GARY NORTH'S Y2K LINKS & FORUMS)

It was a "Black Friday," on Jan. 9, 1998 when the two filtration plants that serve Montreal and 15 neighboring towns lost power due to the century's worst ice storm -- only six hours' worth of clean water remained in reservoirs. In public hearings in September, it was revealed that local fire chiefs were never warned that Montreal's water-distribution system was about to collapse. Fire departments which rely on Montreal's water-treatment plants lost precious time when they could have been stockpiling water in case of a blaze. The strategy was not to tell the public about the problem because they would panic and lower water levels even more. Pierre Damico, President of THE ASSOCIATION OF FIRE CHIEFS OF METROPOLITAN MONTREAL, blasted HYDRO QUEBEC for keeping fire chiefs in the dark about its emergency plans. "It is very important to know what is happening in our territory." GAZ METROPOLITAIN, BELL CANADA and CANADIAN PACIFIC also refuse to cooperate, claiming their plans contain confidential information. Damico also said it makes no sense that water-filtration plants don't all have generators. (JG)

Link: http://www.montrealgazette.com/PAGES/980925/1634608.html

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Y2K RESOURCES:

NHNE-SEDONA TASK FORCE VIDEOS

We now have a collection of Y2K videos and will be adding more titles in the near future. Each video costs $20.00 and can be ordered via credit card through Karen Lynn at (520) 282-7594, or through regular mail by sending a check to:

NewHeavenNewEarth
P.O. Box 2242
Sedona, AZ 86339

1. DAVID SUNFELLOW INTERVIEWED ON GERONIMO CABLE

David Sunfellow talks C.J. Cells about why Y2K is such a serious problem. Topics include our "just in time" economy, the dangers of Y2K and a fractional banking system, the potential of wide-spread systematic failures, current news reports and congressional hearings.

2. PALOMA O'RILEY IN SEDONA

The Sedona Y2K Task Force brought Paloma O'Riley to Sedona, Arizona to speak about Y2K. As Co-Founder of the the Cassandra Project (http://www.millennia-bcs.com/) and one of the leading spokespeople on Y2K, Paloma talks about how and why she got involved in Y2K, how the Cassandra Project came to be, personal and neighborhood Y2K preparedness, and Y2K grassroots efforts around the country. Paloma is introduced by David Sunfellow who provides a quick overview of Y2K.

3. EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS

Darlene Jan and Frank Wong presented a talk on emergency preparedness in Sedona, Arizona. Along with discussing a wide variety of issues related to emergency preparedness, Darlene and Frank demonstrate popular survival equipment and explain its purpose and use. Renowned speakers on earthquake preparedness, Darlene and Frank have earned the highest recognition given by the California Emergency Services Association for their efforts to inform, organize and prepare California communities for potential earthquakes. They have also been featured on major television and radio stations, including the New York Times and CNN Headline News. In addition to these accomplishments, Darlene and Frank own two disaster preparedness stores in the Bay Area of California and Darlene presently serves on the Steering Committee of the Sedona Y2K Task Force.

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Y2K PEOPLE FINDING PEOPLE
(Thanks to Einiyah ben-Elyon for part of the information in this resource)

It makes sense that the more people around you prepared for Y2K, the greater will be your resources and the more assured your safety. Yet one of the biggest networking problems is connecting with like-minded people in your own neighborhood. Bruce Beach at ARK TWO COMMUNITY has created a service that helps people interested in Y2K issues to connect with others in their own geographic area. To register, visit <http://y2kfind.listbot.com> and submit your email address along with your city and state or province (U.S. or Canada only). Your name is not required. The service will provide you with the email addresses of other Y2Kers in your vicinity.

Two more "Y2K People Finding People" resources worth mentioning are:

THE CASSANDRA PROJECT:
http://www.millennia-bcs.com/

SURVIVAL COMMUNITIES (& Y2K PREPAREDNESS GROUPS): http://www.webpal.org/list.htm

(JG, DS)

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FREE COMPLIANCE DATABASE
(Source: CMP Media, 2/11/98 via YEAR 2000 INFORMATION CENTER)

ELECTRONIC DATA SYSTEMS CORP. has just launched "Vendor 2000," a vast database that provides free compliance information for more than 125,000 items representing 3,000 vendors. "The service is a powerful complement to the Good Samaritan legislation now in Congress, which encourages organizations to share Year 2000 information with each other and the public," says John Koskinen, Chairman of the YEAR 2000 CONVERSION COUNCIL. (JG)

Link: http://www.vendor2000.com/

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MICROSOFT: COMPLIANT WITH MINOR ISSUES PRODUCTS
(Source: THE Y2K ALERT, 10/23/98)

Microsoft has released a list that shows which products are compliant and which ones are "compliant with minor issues." You can check out the status of your own Microsoft software at this location. (DS)

Link: http://www.microsoft.com/technet/topics/year2k/product/user_compliant.htm

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EMERGENCY FOOD CALCULATOR
(Thanks to Einiyah ben-Elyon)

Now here's a nifty emergency preparedness food storage planner: just enter your family info and it prints out a customized plan to meet your food needs for a year! For example, the basic food supply recommended for a family of two adults and two teenage kids is: 1,260 lbs. of whole grains and grain products, 252 lbs. of legumes, 333 lbs. of dairy products, 252 lbs. of sweeteners, 84 lbs. of fats and oils, plus dry yeast, soda, baking powder, vinegar, chlorine bleach, iodized salt, sprouting seeds, and a minimum of 28 gallons of water per week. You can also order food from these folks, but expect delays in having your order filled. (JG)

Link: http://www1.icserv.net/D100001/X100043/fscalc.html

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Y2K STORIES:

MARS, VENUS & Y2K
(Source: Barbara Stahura , Y2KTODAY via the wild2k Website, 10/16/98)

Just as John Gray says men and women communicate as though they come from different planets, it appears that men and women are reacting to Y2K in opposite ways. "Men tend to...respond more assertively and aggressively [to Y2K]. They want to...either fix it or head for the hills," says Paloma Riley, creator of THE CASSANDRA PROJECT, a Y2K preparedness site. "By a large margin, women...don't want to leave their support systems or take the kids out of school."

Karen Anderson, founder of Y2K WOMEN, sees such a strong gender difference that she's writing a book called "Mars and Venus Look at the Year 2000 Problem." Differing reactions to fear account for some of the problem. "For men, fear is a huge motivator. With women, if they really get the fear, they don't want to think about it. They feel too vulnerable." Anderson created Y2K Women to explain the situation in a context that doesn't promote hysteria.

Both Anderson and Riley agree that paying attention and gathering practical knowledge now, including information on communication differences between the sexes, will keep men and women on the same planet when the inevitable crunch arrives. (DS, JG)

Link: http://www.y2ktoday.com/modules/home/default.asp?feature=true&id=426

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Y2K & THE BELL CURVE
(Source: Michael S. Hyatt & Bill Dunn, Westergaard 2000 Website, 10/21/98)

Exerpts:

"The pattern we observe with final exams is called a Bell Curve. At first there is a slow trickle (the high-achievers), which builds to a crest (those of us in the majority), and then finally peters out (the under-achieving stragglers)..."

"We are being assured that organizations and technology systems will be fixed by the deadline of December 31, 1999. Well, at least enough of them will be fixed so that our economy and prosperous way of life will not be greatly affected. But if that is the case, where are the high-achievers? Where are the super smart students who zip through the exam in half the time and walk out with an 'A'?

"It is now the Fourth Quarter of 1998. If the vast majority of organizations are going to be finished within a year, as we are being told, we should be seeing some major organizations that are now finished. It is the result the bell curve should give us: a trickle of high-achievers finished by now, a crest of the majority of firms finishing in 1999, and a handful of stragglers who will miss the deadline.

"But here in the Fourth Quarter of 1998, there is not a single major bank which is done; there is not a single power utility finished; there is not a single telecommunications firm compliant; there is not a single Fortune 500 company all set; there is not a single federal agency which is finished. In fact, the Social Security Administration, which discovered the problem way back in 1989 and began its Y2K program in 1991, is still not finished. If any organization should be a high achieving 'A' student, it should be the SSA.

"So what can we conclude? If no major outfit has yet been able complete this 'exam,' if the trickle of high-achievers has not yet begun, it is obvious that the bell curve will not crest in mid-1999. It will instead crest well after January, 2000 -- which means our economy and our prosperous way of life are in for some serious, possibly life-threatening, disruptions..."

Link: http://y2ktimebomb.com/Economy/Predictions/hyatt9842.htm

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METEOR STORM APPROACHING
(Source: Randy Boswell & Kelly Egan, THE OTTAWA CITIZEN, 9/10/98; Shannon Kari, THE OTTAWA CITIZEN, 8/10/98)

A colossal meteor storm scheduled to collide with Earth on Nov. 17 poses an unprecedented threat to global communication networks. A group of experts made up of scientists from the UNIVERSITY OF WESTERN ONTARIO, officials at the CENTRE FOR RESEARCH IN EARTH AND SPACE in Waterloo, Ontario, and the U.S. military, is calling next month's storm the first serious threat of the space age. Potential satellite damage could affect everything from cellular phone service to TV reception.

The Leonid Meteor Shower (named after the constellation from which it appears to originate) peaks every 32 to 33 years and is caused by Earth passing through the trail of debris from Comet Temple-Tuttle. While the bulk of the debris is grit and ice no larger than a grain of sand, the fact that the Leonids have 1,000 times the intensity of a regular meteor shower and are moving at an incredible 155,000 mph -- about 100 times the speed of a bullet -- may result in a literal sandblasting of anything they encounter in space.

The last time the Leonids struck in full force was 1966. Since that time, hundreds of orbital satellites have been deployed. The implications of the assault are uncertain, but satellite companies are taking no chances. In most they cases they are planning to tilt their satellites so that vulnerable solar panels are edge on to the flow of particles in order to minimize damage. Operators of the Hubble Space Telescope are expected to turn the fragile lens away from the direction of the shower in order to protect the optics. The actual shower will last about 12 hours and is expected to return for a repeat performance in November 1999. (JG, DS, SJS)

Link: http://www.ottawacitizen.com/national/981008/1922359.html
Link: http://www.ottawacitizen.com/national/981011/1930048.html

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Y2K & ENVIRONMENTALISM
(Source: Jim Lord, WESTERGAARD 2000: Y2K TIP OF THE WEEK, 8/9/98)

Embedded processors control countless industrial processes that deal with pollutants, poisons and toxic substances, such as those in chemical plants, oil and gas wells, nuclear power generators, sewage treatment plants, and hydroelectric dams. Because these embedded processors contain clocks, the Y2K bug poses a significant environmental threat.

The April 1998 issue of WORLD OIL MAGAZINE claims, "It is estimated that the average oil and gas firm, starting today, can expect to remediate less than 30 percent of the overall potential failure points in the production environment. This reality shifts the focus of the solution away from trying to fix the problem, to planning strategies that would minimize potential damage and mitigate potential safety hazards."

The environmental implications of such a statement are staggering. While at this moment the environmental movement doesn't seem to have a Y2K clue, environmentalists will play an immensely important role in the public discourse when they finally get up to speed. With their political clout and their global organization, this confrontation with industry should prove to be compelling. Political leaders all over the world will be trapped in a fascinating conundrum: in order to save the world, they will have to shut it down. (JG)

Link: http://www.y2ktimebomb.com/Tip/Lord/lord9836.htm

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FOR SALE: Y2K ESCAPES
(Source: WIRED, 5/10/98, thanks to Bruce Fraser)

Olivia L'Heureux first learned of the millennium bug in the '70s when she was a COBOL programmer and, like many coders of her time, she figured that a solution would eventually be found. But this past August, realizing that it was impossible to fix all of the computers and computer chips in time for the millennium, she and her husband started looking for a safe place to ride out the anticipated storm. They found the process difficult and complicated: "It's really cumbersome to go through real estate site after real estate site, hunting for suitable Y2K properties," said L'Heureux. Recognizing there was a need among nervous millennium watchers, she created VAMOOSE, the Internet's first Y2K relocation and safe-haven site.

VAMOOSE publishes ads for available land and planned Y2K communities. L'Heureux says she looks for survivalist-friendly factors such as mild weather, gardening plots, and properties that are "far, but not too far" from cities. At this time, most of the ads are in the U.S. "We do not know how significant the disruptions associated with Y2K will be [but] we all should educate ourselves and prepare as we see best. The earlier your preparations for Y2K are, the easier and more affordable they will be."

While the site received several thousand hits in its first two weeks of operation, there were no sales. Activity on the site is expected to heat up come 1999. By the way, L'Heureux and her husband recently purchased a home in the White Mountains of Arizona -- a high desert area about five hours northeast of Phoenix. (JG)

Link: http://www.Vamoose.com/

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YEAR 2000 EXPECTED TO TRIGGER RUN ON CASH
(Sources: CP, THE TORONTO STAR, 2/11/98; via Y2K NEWS MAGAZINE; Susanne Craig, THE GLOBE AND MAIL 2/11/98 via SANGER'S REVIEW OF Y2K NEWS REPORTS; Amara Angelica, TECHWEEK, 2/11/98)

Central banks and financial institutions are closely monitoring depositor jitters about possible Year 2000 computer foul-ups. Since most people don't carry as much cash as they once did, relying instead on credit and debit cards, an increased demand for cash would be quickly felt.

In anticipation of people withdrawing extra money in the weeks leading to the millennium, the U.S. is planning to print an extra $100 billion over the next year to bolster its existing $150 billion in currency reserves. THE BANK OF CANADA is also poised to print more money, as is the BANK OF ENGLAND. The RESERVE BANK of New Zealand intends to keep old bank notes, which are due to be replaced next year by flexible plastic ones, in vaults instead of destroying them.

In mid-October, WEISS RATINGS INC. released results of a bank survey that showed 12 percent of U.S. banks and financial institutions are behind schedule in their Y2K-compliance efforts. If the problem is not remedied, customer bank balances could fall to zero when the year changes to 2000. A number of executives said that while they feel they are prepared for whatever might come their way on New Year's Eve 1999, they are glad it falls on the Saturday of a long weekend. (JG)

Link: http://www.thestar.com/editorial/money/981102BUS01d_FI-CASH2.html Link: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/docs/news/19981102/GlobeFront/UBANKN.html Link: http://www.techweek.com/articles/11-2-98/countdow.htm

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INSIDE A MIDWEST MORTGAGE COMPANY
(Source: Y2K WEATHERMAN, 10/16/98)

[THE Y2K WEATERMAN, a popular Y2K mailing list published by Dennis Elenburg, recently announced efforts to provide "insiders" the space to tell their stories, provided they worked in critical industries and their identity and claims could be verified. The following insider story was published in the October 10, 1998 issue.]

Dear Y2K Weatherman,

I am a mortgage counselor for a major bank here in the Midwest. That means if you have been more than 16 days late on a house payment, you have probably heard from me!

For the last 6 months I have been receiving some rather unusual interoffice emails through our company's intranet. They say we have our Y2k problem solved and have instructed us to tell our customers that the problem is fixed and business will carry on as usual. However, since they have "solved" this problem several strange things have been happening.

For example, our computer is now showing several thousand loans as matured because they were originated in the year 1900 or matured in the year 1900. They show up in my files as in default. Our computer system is also losing payments. When a payment is being electronically processed, the computer sometimes places it in all kinds of strange suspense accounts. We thought we had that one fixed until yesterday when we discovered the computer had just created some new suspense accounts to stash your cash!

Still, as far as the possibility of a foreclosure on your home, I say don't worry. It is people like myself that must first recommend you for foreclosure. When we foreclose on a loan, the banks lose far more than they gain, and it would take a millennium for us to get to your loan manually since we are so far understaffed. Also, if the power is off for you, it may be off for us as well. I am not advocating that you stop paying on your house now or ever for that matter. Keep right on paying in a timely fashion, and always get receipts for everything.

Please do not show my email address as I could lose my job if this is traced back to me. We are installing an alternative energy system at our house, and until we are fully off of the power grid, I really need this income. Thank-you and may God Bless you in all you do.

"The only thing evil needs to strive is for good men to do nothing."

Signed, Midwest Mortgage Manager

Link: http://y2kwatch.com/y2kman.htm

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IRS TO BE Y2K READY BY JAN '99
(Source: REUTERS, 10/23/98)

The IRS recently declared that it will beat the millennium computer bug afterall. Speaking to hundreds of certified public accountants in Washington, IRS Chief, Charles Rossotti said, "The overall message is that while there may be -- and probably will be -- some glitches, the good news is that all key (IRS) systems will be Y2K compliant by January 1999." The Service has, however, already has run into some embarrassing snafus. Said Rossotti, "There were a few people who got notices saying they owe the IRS $300 million."

Critics of the IRS don't share Rossotti's optimistic assessment. Gary North, for instance, challenged Rossotti's views by summarizing the agency's past failings: "An organization that blew $4 billion and 11 years to fix its systems and admitted utter defeat in January of 1997 has now fixed its computers. An organization that sought to farm out bids to private companies to fix y2k because it couldn't do the job has now solved it without outside help in just 19 months. It will complete code repair and testing 30 days earlier than the 1/31/99 forecast that the IRS made last June." (DS)

Link: http://guide-p.infoseek.com/Content?arn=a1400rittz-19981023&col=NX

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$3.4B Y2K BUDGET
(Source: COMPUTERWORLD ONLINE NEWS, 10/22/98)

Next year's U.S. budget includes $3.4 billion in emergency spending for fixing year 2000 problems in government computer systems. The funding, including about $1.1 billion earmarked for Department of Defense systems and computers that support national security, is in addition to appropriations that government agencies have been granted for other information technology procurements. The emergency appropriation is slightly more than the $3.25 billion requested by the Clinton administration last month after the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) warned that the government's costs to fix the problem continues to grow. That total is now estimated at $5.4 billion, according to OMB, which also said last month that seven departments are critically behind schedule in fixing their systems.

Republican lawmakers expressed concern over what they said is a lack of public awareness about the computer date problem and complained that the Clinton administration has "received failing grades" on its efforts to correct the problem. Republican lawmakers did, however, hail the recent passage of the Readiness Disclosure Act, a bill designed to encourage companies to share information about year 2000 preparations by freeing them from certain liabilities. They also said that the appointment of the President's Council on the Year 2000 Conversion and the endorsement of Good Samaritan behavior are important steps taken over the past year. They added there would be even more focus on the problem in the next Congress. (DS)

Link: http://www.computerworld.com/home/news.nsf/all/9810224budget

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JAPANESE BANKS IN BIG TROUBLE
(Source: NEW YORK TIMES, 15/10/98 via SANGER'S REVIEW Y2K NEWS REPORTS)

Japan's banking system is acutely short of capital, with the top 19 banks in deeper trouble than Tokyo has ever admitted before. At a private meeting earlier this month, the Governor of the BANK OF JAPAN, Masaru Hayami, told Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin and Alan Greenspan, the Chairman of the FEDERAL RESERVE, that the capital supporting those major banks has dwindled to such dangerously low levels in recent months that the banks of the world's second largest economy might be banned from operating internationally "if the rules were vigorously pursued."

Banks that operate globally are required to keep on hand capital amounting to at least 8 percent of their outstanding loans. Few and fewer of Japan's banks can meet that standard today and some may even fall below the 4 percent minimum for operating within Japan's borders. Many experts consider bolstering Japan's ravaged banking system as the single most critical factor in quelling the current global financial turmoil. (JG)

Link: http://www.nytimes.com/library/world/global/100598worldbank-imf.html

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GARTNER GROUP REPORT
(Source: Thanks to Y2KSUPPLY.COM, 7/10/98)

On October 7th, 1998, the GARTNER GROUP, a leading American Y2K research firm, presented its findings to THE U.S. SENATE SPECIAL COMMITTEE ON THE YEAR 2000 TECHNOLOGY in Washington, DC. The report, based upon a survey of 15,000 companies in 81 countries, paints a bleak future for the world: 23% of all companies have not even started Y2K compliance efforts; 30% - 50% of all companies and government agencies will experience at least one mission-critical failure due to Y2K and 10% of those failures will last three days or longer; in the U.S., not one government employee has Y2K as their full-time responsibility, and no body or group has been assigned the Y2K task. The report concludes: "It is now clearly evident that segments of companies and governments throughout the world will not be fully prepared to deal with this problem by 2000."

The report determined that the following U.S. groups would experience at least one mission-critical failure:

- 15% of all insurance companies, banks, investment services;

- 33% of all medical and software companies, publishing houses, retail stores;

- 50% of all transportation companies, suppliers of power, natural gas and oil, television broadcasters, law enforcement agencies;

- 66% of educational institutions, government agencies, food suppliers, farms, city services, healthcare providers.

The report points out that due to the interconnectedness of the global economy, an even greater risk comes from "countries already plagued with financial woes, sharp increases in inflation, limited monetary reserves, and high unemployment," for they tend to be the ones furthest behind in Year 2000 compliance, such as China and Russia. The report goes on to say, "Interdependencies and interconnectivity between companies and across country borders... are not being covered by either company, and... are of critical importance in banking, government, healthcare, and for many global manufacturers." Y2KSUPPLY.COM, an American Y2K watchdog agency, agrees with this statement, claiming that the interdependence of modern civilization is "the" Y2K problem.

However, Y2KSUPPLY.COM takes exception to the report's disclaimer that, "Embedded systems will have limited effect on Year 2000 problems," countering that they receive daily emails from insiders at nuclear power plants, state prisons, power companies and government agencies who relate frightening stories of management completely ignoring date-sensitive hardware systems. Perhaps the best-known embedded-system bug will occur on August 22, 1999, when the Global Positioning System (GPS) loses its calendar, resulting in bad date data being transmitted globally. This is quite serious when you consider that GPS guides missiles, ships, planes, and also helps schedule bank transfers.

While the report is certainly valuable, it suffers from the fact that the Gartner Group did not send their own consultants into the 15,000 companies for verification of data, relying rather on reports generated in-house by the companies themselves. Thus, it would seem reasonable to infer that conditions are likely underreported and the situation is even worse than the report claims. (JG)

Link: http://gartner11.gartnerweb.com/public/static/aboutgg/pressrel/testimony1098.html

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EMERGENCY PLANNING FOR THE YEAR 2000: PREPARATION OR PANIC?
Major General Edward Philbin Executive Director National Guard Association of the United States October 2, 1998, Washington, D.C.

Excerpts:

"Mr. Chairman, ...it is increasingly evident that an appreciable part of the nation's infrastructure could be adversely affected in some way, by what is commonly referred to as the Y2K problem. In general, the National Guard has the capacity to provide Military Support to Civilian Authorities (MSCA) and can contribute a myriad of human and equipment resources to restore essential operations disrupted by Y2K generated incidents.

"Considering the possibilities of a large scale disruption of governmental, commercial and other routine daily activities, it is certain that the National Guard will be among the first organizations activated to assist in the revitalization of the nation's computer dependent infrastructure. As with hurricanes, floods and other incidents requiring a quick reaction by a well-trained and equipped on-site team, no other organization will be able to respond in support of police, fire fighting and other civilian emergency responders, to major crisis situations that may be caused by Y2K disruptions as well as the National Guard..."

"I suggest that the Department of Defense (DoD) must develop a clear concept of how the National Guard will be required to respond to the spectrum of problems that could be created by a Y2K disruption. The DoD, through the Chief of the National Guard Bureau (NGB), must now coordinate with the Adjutants General and the Governors to determine the likely, locality specific scenarios that may arise in a Y2K situation.

"The DoD should also assist the Governors and State Emergency Response Coordinators to ensure that the National Guard itself will not be impaired by the effects of a Y2K incident at a time when it will be most needed..."

"We must be certain that the National Guard will not itself be a victim of any Y2K disruption. All National Guard units in 3,200 locations throughout the nation, must possess computer dependent equipment that is Y2K compliant. Responding to the consequences of a Y2K disruption will be futile if the National Guard's operations are plagued by the very consequences the Guard is attempting to manage. It is critical that the Y2K response requirements of the National Guard be fully funded to ensure that it is able to respond quickly and effectively to the needs of the community. I respectfully request, Mr. Chairman, that this Committee urge the Senate to provide full funding for Y2K compliance upgrading of National Guard equipment as one of the highest priorities for such funding, since the Guard will be among the first responders to a Y2K incident together with police, fire- fighting and other civilian emergency response personnel..."

"The Year 2000 challenges present an emergency scenario unlike any other in our nation's history. Our technological society has grown extremely dependent upon the continuity of computer driven systems and networks and as a consequence, the nation's vulnerability has increased appreciably. Any significant disruption of our computer dependent infrastructure could result in a significant societal disruption. However, with the cooperative interaction of federal and state governments, the military, the private sector, and with serious advance preparation, the impact of such an event on the American people can be significantly reduced, if not totally eliminated..." (DS)

Link: http://www.senate.gov/~y2k/statements/100298philbin.html

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WISCONSIN NATIONAL GUARD PREPARES
(Source: Lee Bergquist, 08/10/98, Amy Rinard, 07/10/98, JOURNAL SENTINEL ONLINE)

By the end of a day-long hearing by a Wisconsin Assembly Y2K committee on October 6, 1998, it was clear no one really knows what will happen at 12:01 a.m. Jan. 1, 2000. "The only thing we do know is that there will be problems," says Rep. Sheryl Albers, the Chairwoman of the committee. She intends to introduce legislation in January to put the Wisconsin National Guard on standby on Dec. 31, 1999, to address any problems caused by computer shutdowns. "I don't want to scare the public, but when we start talking about mobilizing the National Guard, people should realize how serious this is." Mari Nahn, an attorney with Madison-based ALLIANT CORP.-WISCONSIN POWER & LIGHT CO., admitted at the meeting that power failures are likely, as are failures of municipal water systems.

Col. Kerry Denson, Deputy Adjutant General for the Wisconsin Army National Guard, confirmed that the Guard has been planning for Jan. 1, 2000 for several months. The Guard has started taking an inventory of all its emergency generators and expects to have a crew assigned to each generator that night in the event that power goes out somewhere and those generators are needed. "When something happens, you always expect the Guard to respond. I never thought I'd be responding to a computer problem. The National Guard is not going to go out and fix your computer; we're going to... deal with the consequences of your computer failing," Denson said.

The day after the meeting, Wisconsin public utility companies were quick to reassure their customers that, while they could expect some glitches when 2000 rolls around, they should have plenty of power, heat and water on the big day. Utility and municipal officials pointed out that they have worked on the problem for at least a year and are spending millions of dollars to make sure their computers survive the problem. For example, AMERITECH CORP., the Baby Bell that provides local phone service in parts of Wisconsin and four other states, is spending $250 million over five years on the problem, spokesman Frank Mitchell said. 300 employees are rewriting nearly 30% of all the code in Ameritech's computer systems; others are testing and fixing equipment at 1,500 switches across the region that process phone traffic. Gary J. Wolter, senior vice president of administration for MADISON GAS & ELECTRIC CO. says, "We believe that there could be inconveniences, but nothing that will endanger the health or safety of our customers. We have storms, equipment breakdowns -- we have problems all of the time. That is what we do here -- and we are good at it."

However, ALLIANT ENERGY CORP. spokesman David Giroux admitted that his company is very worried about the Y2K problem, especially in delivering electric power. "Power failures are possible. Anyone who has told you they have fixed the problem -- guaranteed -- is not understanding the scope of the problem." (JG)

Link: http://www.jsonline.com/news/1007y2k.asp

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CANADIAN ARMY PREPARES FOR POSSIBLE Y2K CHAOS
(Sources: Jeff Sallot and John Saunders, THE GLOBE AND MAIL, 27/10/98; SANGER'S REVIEW OF Y2K NEWS REPORTS, 27/10/98)

On October 27, 1998, THE GLOBE AND MAIL printed this remarkable headline on its front page: "Army Fears Civil Chaos from Millennium Bug." What makes this event particularly noteworthy is the fact that the Globe is Canada's conservative national newspaper, being primarily a forum for big business issues. It seems that Canadians, particularly Canadian businessmen, have started to take the Y2K threat seriously.

Two months ago, a 24-page "warning order" was sent to military commanders, regional headquarters and reserve units across Canada. informing them that the threat of the Year 2000 bug is their highest priority and will be the focus of all training from January on. The military's response was to launch "Operation Abacus," named after the ancient Chinese bead-and-string calculator that needs no power and is not susceptible to bugs and glitches.

The Globe article was an overview of the preparations that are being made by the military to meet what is being treated as a very real threat; for example:

- Logistics officers are plotting the best places to position vehicles, fuel, tents and stockpiles of supplies.

- Signals officers are trying to figure out how to keep government officials in communication if commercial systems fail.

- Rules for the use of force are being drafted should riots and looting break out.

- Ships may have to be docked in port cities to serve as garrisons, power plants, field hospitals and soup kitchens.

The worst-case scenario would have 32,000 soldiers living and working in the field -- the biggest deployment of the Canadian Armed Forces since W.W.II. This number could swell to more than 60,000, if weekend warriors are pressed into service. And Canadian troops would not be the only ones out in the cold -- across the country, police and fire fighters have also been informed not to plan any vacations around January 1, 2000.

Is Y2K a death sentence for industrial civilization or simply a fraud whipped up by computer geeks? The fact that such a calmly serious article was published in the Globe, 14 months before the actual event, is an indication of how serious Canadian business is treating the whole matter and how much it is counting on the military to maintain law and order. (JG)

Link: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/docs/news/19981027/GlobeFront/UTWOON.html

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AN INTERVIEW WITH JOHN KOSKINEN

[The following are edited excerpts from an interview with John Koskinen (JK), Chair of the PRESIDENTIAL COUNCIL ON YEAR 2000. The interview was conducted by Forrest Sawyer (FS) of ABC NEWS on October 20, 1998 on NIGHTLINE.]

FS: How bad is the problem?

JK: Well, I think ultimately the risk to the American public is not going to be from federal systems. We have some of the largest, most complicated, antiquated systems in the world, but we've been working on it for over three years in most of the agencies so that I'm confident that the vast majority of the mission critical systems of the federal government are going to work. But I do think we have exposures in other areas both domestically and internationally... This is a serious problem that everybody should be treating as such, but there's no indication yet that there are going to be basic failures of the infrastructure in the United States. Therefore, I think that there is no basis for people disrupting their lives at this time to be prepared for that. On the other hand, it doesn't mean that we don't have a lot of work to do and that people should not be taking it seriously.

FS: What are the problem areas?

JK: Our concerns right now are: domestically, a lot of small to medium sized organizations, both in the public sector and in the private sector, have not understood the possible impact this problem could have on them; internationally, a significant number of countries (probably over half) have yet to begin work on this problem in any meaningful way. Most of the countries that we're concerned about are the developing countries that have decided that if they don't have major mainframe operations, the problem isn't theirs.

FS: I just read a recent poll that says 38 percent of computer industry executives are considering withdrawing all of their personal assets from banks or investment houses. Is that reasonable?

JK: No. The financial system is probably in the strongest position of any in the country. Federal regulators have been working for over two years with every bank in the United States and the last surveys they've done in their examinations show that only one or two percent have any significant delays in their progress at all. Similarly, the SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION (SEC) and THE SECURITIES INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION have been working very closely with their members. I think there is no basis at this time for having any major concern about either the banks or financial institutions.

FS: A lot of those executives are also swearing that on January 1st, 2000, they're not about to get on an airplane.

JK: Contrary to growing public opinion that the FAA is going to be the poster child of failed systems, I'm confident that the FAA system is going to work. In fact, I've announced I'm flying to New York on New Year's Eve in 1999 and I'll take the first plane back the next day.

FS: What if I take a flight to Bali?

JK: A flight to Bali is a different issue. The FAA is working with international air traffic associations and the airlines and will not allow anybody to fly anywhere where there are going to be delays or any difficulties.

FS: Where are the dislocations going to come?

JK: Dislocations are going to come in this country in a lot of the small and medium sized cities and counties where mayors or city managers or county executives have not yet really understood the seriousness of the problem. If they don't start soon, it really will be too late for them.

FS: What can you say to [survivalists] who are spending so much of their time putting [supplies] away and taking weapons training to convince them that they're wasting their time?

JK: Given the information I have, I think there is no basis for people to disrupt their lives, but everybody has to make their own judgment.

Full report: http://www.abcnews.com/onair/nightline/transcripts/ntl_981020_trans.html

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HOW TO ORDER NIGHTLINE'S Y2K REPORT

ABC's Nightline Tuesday, October 20, 1998 "The Year 2000 Bug: Time to Sound the Alarm, or Just a Lot of Hype?"

To order a copy, call: 1 (800) Call-ABC

29.95 + 4.95 (S&H) = 34.90

------------

KOSKINEN'S ROSY PICTURE CHALLENGED
(Sources: Jim Lord, WESTERGAARD 2000 WEBSITE, 10/26/98; Mike Adams, Y2K ALERT, 10/22/98)

After the NIGHTLINE special on Y2K aired, several Internet Y2K trackers challenged Koskinen's upbeat picture of the Federal government's Y2K status. Ex-Navel Officer, computer systems expert, speaker, author, WESTERGAARD 2000 Columnist and congressional-testimony-regular Jim Lord took Koshinen to task for ignoring current government estimates that are predicting more than one third of the government's mission critical systems could fail. Lord also challenged NIGHTLINE to do their homework and ask more informed questions. Here are some quotes from Koskinen's interview and Lord's comments:

"We have some of the largest, most complicated, antiquated systems in the world, but we've been working on it for over three years in most of the agencies so that I'm confident that the vast majority of the mission critical systems of the federal government are going to work."

Nonsense (except for the part about largest, most complicated and antiquated). According to the February 1997 OMB report on Y2K, the federal government programmed less than fifty-eight million dollars for Y2K for all of fiscal year 1997. This "chump change" amounts to just over one percent of current planned Y2K expenditures. The notion that "most" agencies have worked on this problem for over three years is unsupported by facts.

The continuing claim that the "vast majority" of federal mission critical systems are going to work is in serious dispute. Congressman Horn's latest report card indicates that MORE THAN ONE THIRD of all federal, mission critical systems will not be completed in time. One of these views is not correct. The difference between these claims is critically important to the welfare of this nation.

This precise point was where ABC's flubbed its story. Where was the penetrating, hard-nosed investigative journalism when it was needed the most?

Why was Mr. Koskinen not asked the following question on national TV?

"Eighty-four percent of all technology projects are finished late or not at all. Y2K is the largest technology project in history and it has a fixed deadline. Why is the government trying to convince us it is about to pull off the greatest technical miracle in history?"

Link: http://y2ktimebomb.com/Tip/Lord/lord9843.htm

***

CLINTON'S Y2K BILL COVERS THIS Mike Adams Y2K ALERT, 10/22/98

In a fascinating twist, the recently-passed S.2392 act, signed by the President, says that organizations making Year 2000 statements will be immune from legal action unless they intentionally try to deceive the public. Specifically, Section 4 (b), says:

"...the maker of that year 2000 statement shall not be liable under Federal or State law with respect to that year 2000 statement unless the claimant establishes ... that--

(1) the year 2000 statement was material; and

(2)(A) to the extent the year 2000 statement was not a republication, that the maker made the year 2000 statement --

(i) with actual knowledge that the year 2000 statement was false, inaccurate, or misleading;

(ii) with intent to deceive or mislead; or

(iii) with a reckless disregard as to the accuracy of the year 2000 statement

Clearly, the statements by Clinton's own Y2K czar are intended to deceive, are reckless, and are false and misleading. Under Clinton's own rules, the federal government should be held liable for misleading the American people!

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SUMMARY OF OVERSIGHT FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
(Source: THE U.S. COMMITTEE ON GOVERNMENT REFORM AND OVERSIGHT, 10/8/98)

After being given the mandate to examine whether computers throughout the Federal Government, the United States, and the world would be able to handle the transition from the year 1999 to the year 2000, THE U.S. SUBCOMMITTEE ON GOVERNMENT MANAGEMENT, INFORMATION AND TECHNOLOGY has just tabled its preliminary report. Here are some disturbing excerpts:

"It is now clear that a large number of Federal computer systems simply will not be prepared for January 1, 2000... There are approximately 7,300 mission-critical systems in the Executive branch of the Federal Government. As of August 15th, only 50 percent of these systems were Year 2000 compliant. At the current rate of progress, the percentage compliant would climb only to 66 percent by March 1999 -- the President's deadline to fix noncompliant systems and still have enough time to test and implement the systems... The utilities industry, the financial services industry, the telecommunications industry, vital modes of transportation, and other indispensable industrial sectors are [also] at risk.

"The problem lies not just with software in mainframe computer systems, but with embedded microchips. These chips serve as the brains of devices from elevators to security systems to automated manufacturing equipment. There may be as many as 25 billion microchips in use around the world. It is estimated that between two and five percent of all microchips have the date problem... Embedded chips, by definition, are hard to find and hard to test for Year 2000 compliance... Organizations addressing the Year 2000 problem generally understand the embedded chip aspect and are working diligently on it. Based on subcommittee hearings and investigation, however, it appears that the sheer number and relative inaccessibility of embedded chips will overwhelm these efforts. The result will be failure often unforeseen.

"The Year 2000 problem could result in a stunning array of technological failures. Air traffic could be delayed or even grounded; telephone service could be interrupted; breakdowns in the production and distribution of electricity could bring widespread power failures; automatic teller machines might malfunction; traffic lights could stop working; time clocks at factories might malfunction. Government payments, including checks from the INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE, the TREASURY, and the VETERANS BENEFITS ADMINISTRATION, could be interrupted; military technology, including the Global Positioning Satellite System, could malfunction.

"In 1996, the GARTNER GROUP estimated that the worldwide cost of Year 2000 repairs would reach $600 billion, with half of that going to repairs in the U.S., and $30 billion to the Federal Government.

"By failing to address the Year 2000 problem, the United States could suffer severe disruptions in the delivery of essential governmental and private industry services... Inadequate attention to the Year 2000 problem by electrical utilities is seen as the cause for "potentially major catastrophes... It has been suggested that this could even precipitate an economic recession.

"For too long, Federal management has been in denial about the Year 2000 problem. In the DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION, for example, the FEDERAL HIGHWAY ADMINISTRATION first learned of the Year 2000 problem in the late 1980s [yet] the Department's Chief Information Officer admitted he had never heard of the Year 2000 problem until late in 1996. Awareness of the Year 2000 problem among the technology experts at an organization is meaningless if those experts do not have the backing and direction of senior management. Management tends to see the repairs as a burden to be delayed for as long as possible. This is in part because of the persistent belief that someone will invent a silver bullet to fix the problem. Unfortunately, there is no silver bullet.

"The constant exchange of data between all types of organizations makes each organization dependent on the Year 2000 preparedness of its data exchange partners... Fixing internal systems is but one leg of a multi-legged stool. It is one thing to be able to say that all our systems are millennium ready, it is a whole other thing to be able to say that after their conversion, they still have the ability to talk to one another... One weak link anywhere in the chain of critical dependencies can cause major disruptions to business operations. Given these interdependencies, it is imperative that contingency plans be developed for all critical core business processes and supporting systems, regardless of whether these systems are owned by the organization.

"Fear of legal liability has made some organizations reluctant to share the Year 2000 status of their products and internal systems with other businesses and data exchange partners.

"A growing list of high tech service providers are not taking on any more Y2K work as they are already booked up through January 2000. The bottom line is that there will be a Y2K personnel shortage as we enter the home stretch towards the new millennium.

"As the year 2000 approaches, anxiety will increase throughout society. One major aggravation to this anxiety, which could cause more problems than the technology failure itself, is lack of information. It is imperative that citizens have as much information as possible... At the current time, the most logical mechanism for establishing a Year 2000 strategy to coordinate efforts, share information, and alert citizens to the status of Year 2000 preparations is THE PRESIDENT'S COUNCIL ON THE YEAR 2000 CONVERSION.

"It is time for the President to declare that the Year 2000 problem is a National Priority. If sufficient progress is not made by an intermediate deadline, he may even need to escalate the Year 2000 problem to a National Emergency. The point of calling for such urgency is not to trigger panic, but in fact to avoid panic. If this problem does not receive the attention it demands during the next six to nine months, and if we allow the date change to approach without knowing our vulnerability, panic will be the inevitable result... The Year 2000 problem must not be allowed to spark a national crisis."

Complete report: http://www.house.gov/reform/gmit/y2k/y2k_report/Isummary.htm

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Y2K LIGHTER SIDE:

KENYA COMMISSIONS MILLENNIUM BUG REPORT
(Source: REUTERS, 2/11/98 via Y2KTODAY)

The Kenyan government has taken the decisive step of forming a committee to investigate problems that may be caused by the millennium bug. Members of the committee have been informed that the final report on the consequences of the Y2K threat is due in 18 months time... April 2000. (JG)

Link: http://www.y2ktoday.com/modules/home/default.asp

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100 GB BUG THREAT
(Source: Victor Milan, FIREBRINGER NEWS SERVICE (FBNS), 7/10/98 thanks to Bonnie Willow)

Recognizable landmarks outside most McDonald's restaurants are the golden arches that display the number of hamburgers the giant chain has sold worldwide. That number now stands at 99 billion burgers, or 99 Gigaburgers (GB). Within weeks, that number will roll over to 100 GB. Designed years ago when the prospect of selling 100,000,000,000 hamburgers seemed unthinkably remote, the McDonald's signs have only two decimal places. This means that, after the sale of the 100 billionth burger, McDonald's signs will click over to read "00 Billion Burgers Sold." This, experts predict, will convince the public that, in over 30 years, no McDonald's hamburgers have ever been sold, causing a complete collapse of consumer confidence in McDonald's products; the ensuing catastrophic drop in sales is certain to force the already-troubled company into bankruptcy; this, in turn, will push the teetering American economy over the brink, thus ending civilization as we know it. Experts are working feverishly to come up with s solution before it is too late. (JG)

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A Y2K SILVER BULLET
(Source: Thanks to Tom Atlee, THE CO-INTELLIGENCE INSTITUTE, for forwarding this)

Management has decided to remove all computers from desktops by Jan 31, 1999 and, instead, provide everyone with an Etch-A-Sketch.

There are sound reasons for doing this:

1. No Y2K problems.

2. No technical glitches.

3. No more wasted time reading and writing emails.

FAQs for Etch-A-Sketch Technical Support:

Q: How do I create a new document window?

A: Pick it up and shake it.

Q: What is the proper procedure for rebooting my Etch-A-Sketch?

A: Pick it up and shake it.

Q: How do I delete a document on my Etch-A-Sketch?

A: Pick it up and shake it.

Q: How do I turn off my Etch-A-Sketch?

A: Pick it up and shake it.

Q: How do I save my Etch-A-Sketch document?

A: Don't shake it.

The good news is we don't have to go back to pencil and paper... yet! (JG)

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Copyright 1998 by NewHeavenNewEarth

Please feel free to share this update with as many people as you like. If you do share this update with others, we ask that you reproduce it in its entirety (including all credits, copyright notices and addresses), not alter its contents in any way, and pass it on to others free of charge.

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