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NHNE Y2K Report 21
Monday, April 12, 1999


& Consumer Protection
for Spiritual Seekers"


NHNE Y2K Report 21
Monday, April 12, 1999

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Volunteer Y2K Corps Formed
Power Industry Says Y2K Drill A Success
Backup Generator Fails At Seabrook Nuclear Power Plant
Pacificorp Sets Clocks Ahead to Avoid Y2K Problems
FCC: Large Telecom Carriers Y2K Ready
List of Y2K-Troubled Airports Kept Secret
Continental Airlines First to Make Year 2000 Test Flight
President Signs Small Business Y2K Readiness Act
ABC Plans 27-Hour Millennium Special
Larry Sanger Steps Down As Editor of the Review


Two States Issue Food Stamps By Accident
New D.C. Computer System Starts Off With Glitch
Brazilian Nuclear Power Plant Test Goes "Haywire"
Y2K Could Hobble Buildings


To Find Out Who We Are Is the Quest
You Get What You Pay For
I Feel Like I Am Going to Pop
A Matter of Grave Concern


Y2K Risk Management


Suspicious Accidents In Refineries & Power Plants
FEMA Logic
Demand for Y2K Survival Goods Slowing Down
California Maps Out Potential Y2K Impacts
A Wise & Balanced Approach to Y2K Business Remediation


Tom Atlee's Recommended Y2K Resources
"A Survival Guide For The Year 2000 Problem" on the Net
Free Download of Emergency Preparedness Manual
Free Survival Manual
Directory of Local Y2K Community Preparedness Groups
Y2K from A Woman's Perspective
Handpump Installs Alongside Submersible


Who Believes What About Y2K
Bean Bugs for the Millennium




"When despair for the world grows in me
and I wake in the night at the least sound
in fear of what my life and my children's lives may be,
I go and lie down where the wood drake rests in his beauty on the water,
and the great heron feeds.
I come into the peace of wild things
who do not tax their lives with forethought of grief.
I come into the presence of still water.
And I feel above me the day-blind stars waiting with their light.
For a time,
I rest in the grace of the world,
and am free."

--- Wendell Berry (Thanks to Tom Atlee & Meg Wheatley)



(Source: Bob Sullivan, MSNBC, 4/6/1999)

The INTERNATIONAL Y2K COOPERATION CENTER, established by the U.N. in February (Y2K Report 13), has announced formation of the "YES Corps" -- a Peace Corps-type organization designed to match volunteer computer Y2K experts with the world's most serious millennium mishaps. The YES Corps (the name stands for "Y2K Expert Service") will be administered by Gary Beach, founder of the U.S. TECH CORPS, a non-profit organization that coordinates 10,000 volunteers to help bring technology to education. Beach's message to potential volunteers: 'You, the digitally blessed out there: There's a lot of people out here who really need your help." Volunteers will do most of their work over the Internet from home, said Bruce McConnell, Director of the INTERNATIONAL Y2K COOPERATION CENTER, but some volunteers might eventually be sent to countries struggling with Y2K problems. Volunteers can offer anything from full-time help to a few hours a week. McConnel said both China and Russia, often cited as lagging behind in Y2K remediation efforts, have requested help from the YES Corps. The YES Corps is now accepting applications via their website. (JG)

YES Corps Website: http://www.iy2kcc.org/

Link: http://www.Y2Ktoday.com/modules/home/default.asp?id=1205


(Source: ASSOCIATED PRESS via FOX NEWS, 4/10/1999, thanks to Ron Cornish)

Power plants across the country shared information via radio rather than computer Friday to test whether they could keep the lights on even if the Y2K bug knocks out communications. The NORTH AMERICAN ELECTRIC RELIABILITY COUNCIL (NERC), a New Jersey-based industry group assigned by the U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY to make sure the nation's utilities are ready for the new millennium, said the much-hyped test of its readiness for the Year 2000 bug was a success. But critics say Friday's drill didn't tell consumers anything about whether power will keep flowing to their switches in the event of massive computer glitches. "They've been planning this drill since the beginning of the year," said Randy Guidry, managing editor of Y2K News Magazine. "I would compare it to a student in high school taking a test after he's had three months to make up the questions on the test." While the NERC declared the test a success, it also said some backup systems did not work as planned and some workers may require additional training on the satellite voice systems. (DS)

Link: http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/wires2/0410/t_ap_0410_1.sml


(Source: Leslie Miller, ASSOCIATED PRESS, 4/07/1999)

In response to last month's call by Massachusetts Congressman Edward Markey (D-Malden) that all 103 nuclear power plants in the U.S. should be inspected to make sure their backup generators, which are essential to keeping coolant flowing around the fuel rods in the reactor during a blackout, were working properly, a spokesman for the Seabrook nuclear power plant in Seabrook, N.H., announced publicly that the power plant's two backup diesel generators had never failed. But on March 31, plant operators discovered that an electrical relay used to turn on one of the two generators was faulty and may not have been working for the last 21 months. Seabrook is one of 13 nuclear power plants the NRC has audited for Y2K problems. "We see no cause for concern," said Victor Dricks, NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION spokesman, who claimed the control room operators could have turned on the generators by flipping a switch if the relay had not worked during a power outage. But according to Markey, the Seabrook incident highlights the NRC's cavalier attitude toward problems with the backup generators that are supposed to prevent blackouts from causing meltdowns. "Every major accident that has ever occurred at a power plant, from Three Mile Island to Chernobyl, began with a technical problem that a human operator attempted to address and then managed to make worse," Markey said. The Malden Democrat is pushing the NRC to include backup diesel generator reliability in Y2K inspections for all the nation's nuclear plants. (JG)

Link: http://www.fosters.com/news99b/april/07/bu0407b.htm


(Source: ASSOCIATED PRESS, 4/7/1999)

In an attempt to reassure its 1.5 million customers in Oregon, Utah, Wyoming, Washington, Idaho and California that there will be power in the new year, PACIFICORP has begun the process of advancing control system clocks and calendars to the Year 2000, with the objective of having all its thermal power generating units thus configured by June 30. "As far as the computer knows, it's [already] the Year 2000," explained David Register, the company's Year 2000 Project Manager. PacifiCorp is also advancing the clocks for its transmission and distribution systems. The company's equipment calendars will continue to run ahead until March 31, 2000, when workers will begin resetting them to the correct date. Gene Gorzelnik, NORTH AMERICAN ELECTRIC RELIABILITY COUNCIL's Director of Communication, expressed confidence in PacifiCorp, parent company of PACIFIC POWER and UTAH POWER, to move into the year 2000 now. "There are a number of utilities that are doing that," he said. "It has been seen as a very effective way to deal with the issue." So far, about 25 percent of PacifiCorp's equipment have been set ahead, with no apparent problems. (JG)

Link: http://flash.oregonlive.com/cgi-bin/or_nview.pl?/home1/wire/AP/Stream-


(Source: Kristi Essick, IDG, 4/1/1999, thanks to Ron Cornish)

According to a recent report from the FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION (FCC) analyzing the Y2K preparedness of the U.S. telecommunications, radio, broadcast, satellite and cable television industries, America's largest telecommunications providers will have their systems upgraded in time, but smaller carriers are alarmingly behind schedule. "The Y2K Communications Sector Report" concluded that the largest local and long-distance fixed-line providers "are expected to be 100 percent ready, including having their contingency plans in place, by the second quarter of 1999." The large local carriers control 92 percent of all U.S. access lines and the big long-distance companies, in turn, control 82 percent of that market. U.S. residents can also be assured of few disruptions to the broadcast television and radio networks, the FCC said. Although there will be isolated Year-2000 related incidents, most broadcasters surveyed said they have year 2000 plans in place and expect to complete upgrades in the first half of this year, with ample time for testing prior to Jan. 1, 2000. While the FCC is pleased with the progress of U.S. telecom operators, it is concerned about the interconnection of U.S. networks with foreign ones. Regions seen as high-risk include Central and South America, the Indian Sub-Continent and Sub-Sahara Africa, the report said. (JG)

Link: http://cnn.com/TECH/computing/9904/01/telecom.y2k.idg/index.html


(Source: COMPUTER WEEKLY, 3/18/1999)

A list of airports whose flight system computers could fail as a result of the millennium bug, is being compiled by the INTERNATIONAL AIR TRANSPORT ASSOCIATION (IATA). However, the report will not be made available to the public until after the millennium. IATA spokesman David Learmount explained that to publish the list of unsafe destinations before the date change would be "scaremongering." "The idea [of the report] is to...let the airlines know which destinations are reliable," not to inform the public. He says that people flying during the date change should not worry about crashing, but admits, There is quite a high probability that there will be considerable delays during that time." (JG)

Link: http://www.computerweekly.co.uk/cwarchive/Xtra/19990318/cwcontainer.asp?name=C4.html


(Source: PRNEWSWIRE, 4/2/1999)

CONTINENTAL AIRLINES recently completed a successful airborne Y2K test of its aircraft communications system -- the first commercial airline to fly an aircraft in a simulated Year 2000 environment. A Continental Boeing 737-700 flew over Houston, Texas, for one hour, simulating a flight from Dec. 31, 1999 to Jan. 1, 2000. The test flight focused on the Aircraft Communication Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS), a global air-to-ground data link communications system installed aboard all Continental Airlines aircraft. The date-related systems on the aircraft, including the flight management computer, were reset to the last hour of the last day of the century. "This demonstration flight shows that we can achieve consistent, reliable air-to-ground communications through and beyond the millennium clock rollover," said Continental Senior Vice President and Chief Information Officer Janet Wejman. "The results are consistent with what we expected." These tests are part of a larger goal to prepare the airline for the coming millennium change. Continental Airlines is the fifth largest airline in the U.S., offering more than 2,200 departures daily to 128 domestic and 79 international destinations. (JG)

Link: http://infoseek.go.com/Content?arn=PR3225-


(Source: Press Release, Office of the White House Press Secretary, 4/2/1999)

On April 2, 1999, President Bill Clinton signed into law S. 314, the "Small Business Year 2000 Readiness Act." The legislation was created to ensure that the nation's small businesses have access to the capital they need to be "Y2K-OK" in the Year 2000. The Act authorizes the SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION to provide loan guarantees for two Y2K purposes:

1. To purchase the systems, software, equipment, and services necessary to become Y2K compliant.

2. To assist small businesses that suffer economic injury as a result of the Y2K problem during the Year 2000.

This special program will terminate on December 31, 2000. (JG)

Link: http://www.pub.whitehouse.gov/uri-res/I2R?urn:pdi://oma.eop.gov.us/1999/4/2/13.text.1


(Source: David Bauder, AP, 3/24/1999)

ABC TV is planning a 27-hour telethon-like affair to mark the start of the Year 2000. The special will blend news and entertainment, with ABC correspondents stationed in different time zones around the world to mark the historic entry into the new millennium. Peter Jennings will host the show from a new studio ABC is building in New York's Times Square. Veteran Dick Clark will retain to his traditional role as host of ABC's "New Year's Rockin' Eve" in the New Year's special. (JG)

Link: http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/ap/entertainment/story.html?s=v/ap/19990324


By James Gregory

Larry Sanger, founder and editor of SANGER'S REVIEW OF Y2K NEWS REPORTS -- a major resource for the Y2K Report, has resigned. He cites needing the time to wrap up his Ph.D. dissertation and insufficient income as his main reasons for stepping down. He has already hired a replacement, but his site is temporarily off line until the new editor gets up to speed. Sanger's lack of bias, clear thinking and economical editing will be missed.

Link: http://sangersreview.com/why.htm



(Sources: Jeff Kass, DENVER ROCKY MOUNTAIN NEWS, 4/10/99, Wayne Parry, ASSOCIATED PRESS/THE BOSTON GLOBE, 03/22/1999, thanks to Ron Cornish)

The COLORADO STATE WELFARE AGENCY issued almost $1 million in March food stamp benefits to unqualified residents. It's the first time anything like this has happened in Colorado, but the problem has been corrected. The error occurred in late February as the state agency was updating its databases and preparing computers for Y2K, according to DEPARTMENT OF HUMAN SERVICES spokesman Dwight Eisnach. A duplicate data field gave an average of $160 in benefits to those who had qualified for the program in February but did not qualify in March. With up to 5,800 people affected, the total comes to $928,000. Officials caught the error almost as soon as the benefits were sent, but it was too late. The department will now ask as many as 5,800 low-income people to repay the state. "We realize these are low-income families," Eisnach said. "It may be difficult."

New Jersey's main welfare computers also experienced a Y2K-related glitch that enabled thousands of food stamp recipients to access their April benefits a week-and-a-half early. Spokeswoman Jacqueline Tencza said the state's main welfare computer underwent an upgrade and overhaul to improve its capabilities and to protect against the millennium bug. Because of an error in the upgrade, the computer wrongly sent a message to credit benefits as of April 1, 1990, instead of April 1, 1999. The error affected 194,000 people and as much as $58 million may have been involved. Howard Rubin, a Hunter College professor familiar with Y2K problems, called it the "biggest visible occurrence of Y2K impact on the public." No decision has been made about whether to penalize anyone who improperly drew on benefits wrongly posted to their accounts. (DS,JG)

Link: http://insidedenver.com/news/0410retu7.shtml

Link: http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/081/nation/Y2K_glitch_delivers_food_st

Link: http://www.detnews.com/1999/technology/9903/24/03240161.htm


(Source: Sari Horwitz, WASHINGTON POST, 4/7/1999)

The District's brand new state-of-the-art computer system got off to a bumpy start on its first payday, when 30 city employees were overpaid, and an additional 300 District workers couldn't get at their money because payroll checks that were supposed to be deposited directly into their credit union accounts were inexplicably held up. All the problems were cleared up by the afternoon of the same day. "Somehow there was a glitch in the program," said Aaron R. Andrews, Director of the city's Comprehensive Automated Personnel and Payroll System project. "Even though you try to make these things as perfect as possible, when you're talking about a complex system of this magnitude, things like this are going to happen," Andrews said. "I'm just thankful it was resolved and the people got their money." The new Y2K-compliant system was six years in the making. The computer program that previously kept track of payroll and personnel for the District's 32,000 employees was first installed in 1972, and relied on '60's technology. The new $10.2 million system, which merges the city's personnel and payroll records for the first time, was supposed to be up and running two years ago. (JG)

Link: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1999-04/07/165l-040799-idx.html


(Source: Laurie Goering, CHICAGO TRIBUNE, 3/21/1999)

In Latin America, where planes, phones, computers, power grids, hospitals and the government itself rarely work properly anyway, few people are worried about Y2K, which is perceived as less a threat than in the U.S. "I don't believe there will be chaos... [just] some small problems," states Marcos Rabstein, Director of Market Relations for Brazil's NATIONAL CONFEDERATION OF INDUSTRIES. U.S. analysts, however, warn that Rabstein could be wrong and that such a relaxed attitude may be leading toward serious problems. "You get a lot of false optimism from people who started late," says Dale Vecchio, a research director at the GARTNERGROUP, the leading U.S. information technology company focused on Y2K problems. "The more people look at this problem, the more they find that needs to be fixed." For example, last year, when technicians at the huge Xingo hydroelectric dam on Brazil's Sao Francisco River set the dates on the plant's main computer forward to Jan. 1, 2000 as part of their routine Y2K remediation, "the whole control board went haywire...[with] 12,000 warning lights [and] all kinds of alarm information," remembers Marcos Ozorio, one of the members of Brazil's PRESIDENTIAL YEAR 2000 COMMISSION. Technicians quickly switched back the date, and are now hunting down the plant's Y2K bugs. According to Ozorio, "If you had been surprised by a situation like this [in 2000], you'd have to...shut down the plant until you found where the failures were...taking off the energy board 30 percent of northeast Brazil." GartnerGroup ranks Brazil, Chile and Peru as the Latin nations least likely to suffer infrastructure breakdowns; Argentina, Colombia, Venezuela, Guatemala and the Dominican Republic a greater risk; and Ecuador, Costa Rica and Uruguay at serious risk. For countries in the last group, interruption of government services is expected to be "widespread and severe." (JG)

Link: http://chicagotribune.com/business/businessnews/ws/item/0,1267,9693-9678-25421,00.html


(Source: Benny Evangelista, SAN FRANCISCO CHRONICLE, 3/22/1999)

These days, any modern office or large apartment building relies heavily on computer systems and microprocessors to run everything from air conditioners to elevators. Yet, at a recent meeting of San Francisco building owners and managers, half said they haven't even started looking for potential Year 2000 problems that could affect those computers and chips. James Szel, of SYSKA HENNESSY, a company that helps building managers around the world with Year 2000 problem planning, predicts "there will be some buildings that will not be fully operational." He cites the following examples:

- The owner of a major building in Mexico City had his staff spend six months working on the Y2K problem. They even had letters from companies that made key microchips and computer systems certifying that everything would be okay. But when the staff reset the computer clocks to January 1 as a test, "every system, air conditioner, fire, security, all froze."

- While tests of a Concord building's individual computer controlled systems like security were successful, when engineers ran a full test of the building's main computer that controlled those individual components, the whole system locked up and had to be reset.

The building owners association has published a book on commercial real estate Y2K testing and contingency planning. Information about the book can be found at: <www.boma.org/year2000>. (JG)

Link: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/1999/03/22/BU42244.DTL




"I am inspired as a result of the many letters you received and wanted to respond with my thoughts. I, too, have been working with two others and another level of supporters to inform our community. We also have run into some bumps in the road: rooms not being available to hold meetings, miscommunications between the group, etc. I do feel this is something running through the larger group. I know from my spiritual work that whenever work is being done for the light, that darkness or resistance always shows up to try to thwart the efforts for the greater good. I see this as part of our challenge; to discover more of our Godliness and to just keep going, doing what we can to inform our communities and prepare ourselves, especially spiritually. As one of the writers said this is just 'all a joke.' To find out who we are, is the quest. Keep up the good work, there are those who appreciate it."

--- Quila Rider, Show Low, Arizona



"Was just reading the article, "Firm's Illusion of Compliance Shattered," from Y2K Report 20, and I'm grinning ear to ear. I've said all along that the bean counters got us into this mess, and it will be the bean counters (namely bill collectors) that will get us out, because they will figure a way to get their bills through, and, in the process, find and fix so many of the errors. If anyone ever needed a confirmation of how cause and effect work, they need only look at the cost of fixing Y2K. Ironically (or appropriately, if you understand karma), the management decision to save a few dollars back in the '50s is now costing plenty. That happens time and again when big business makes any decision strictly on the basis of cost instead of value. In my opinion, Y2K is the greatest teacher of the lesson: you get what you pay for!"

--- Debra A. Hegerle, Martinez, California



"I couldn't agree more with what Larry Shook said in 'The Beggars of Y2K' (Y2K Report 19). I have a few other compatriots who, like me, feel we were basically born for this. But most of the folks I know live in either blatant denial, or this semi-fog where they say the right things about Y2K -- but do nothing to change their lives. Sometimes I feel like I am going to pop with the tension of living in a world so asleep. I think Y2K is some kind of 'release valve,' and I just pray that something happens. What will we all collectively say when we look back on this era? Probably something like: 'There was a force larger than all of us, pulling us into unconsciousness. We fought it but repeatedly succumbed. Then there was the awakening!' I want to thank you profoundly for the work you do. Between NHNE and Tom Atlee, I stay alive. Know you are appreciated."

--- Suzanne Walker, Boulder, Colorado



"I personally have no problem with your concentration on Y2K issues. I believe this is a matter of grave concern and it cannot be treated lightly. Your work has far-reaching effects and I, for one, appreciate it."

--- Flo Johnasen, Aiea, Island of O'ahu, Hawaii



By Peter Culpan

For the past 30 years have worked in the film and television industry as a safety consultant and safety supervisor. I deal with stunts, special effects, hazardous action and hazardous locations, often with a cast and crew in the hundreds. My working life is dealing with risk management.

I'm trying to deal with the future in the same way, but it's very difficult with non-cooperative 'heads of departments.' Through the inspiration of your site and other similar ones in the U.S., I have become involved in community action. The awareness level around me grows every day, but there is still too much of the "She'll be right mate, don't worry" approach, which is fine, but only once all the preparations have been made.

David Sunfellow very kindly sent me several copies of the "Utne Y2K Citizens Action Guide" of which I am most appreciative, as I have not seen it here. I left a copy with a very skeptical policeman at our local Neighborhood Watch office. I had requested their cooperation in putting a notice in their newsletter which is delivered to every house in the area, but I have severe doubts as to whether they will agree. They don't understand, so they won't commit. I'll keep plugging away at them and all the other procrastinating civil representatives. It sure is difficult to talk to these people. I'm still seeking ways of discussing with my neighbors. How do you talk to a couple with three very young children?

I believe that in our part of the world we have a slightly better chance than most: we don't have hostile borders; we don't have many divisions in the fabric of our society; we could feed ourselves when the crunch comes; and our climate is not too severe.

Thank you for your assistance and kind help. I hope you can all feel the love and respect we have for you out here.

--- Peter Culpan, Safety Consultant, Ivanhoe, Victoria, Australia



By James Gregory

Over the last two months, fuel prices across the U.S. have jumped by an incredible 50 percent. Here is an edited excerpt from a letter to Keith Robertson of California from his gasoline dealer, TOM'S SIERRA, explaining some of the reasons why:

"In general, the petroleum companies we buy our fuel from don't tell us why they raise the prices. As a result, we often don't have an explanation for increased prices. However, a recent explosion and fire have forced the TOSCO refinery in Avon to close for repair and safety compliance. Following a routine maintenance shut down, EXXON was unable to restart its Benicia refinery. Finally, an ARCO refinery in Southern California shut down for technical problems. Suddenly there is a limited supply, and the petroleum companies have rapidly raised the prices we pay."

Sheri Nakken of the Y2K Network points that the CHEVRON refinery in Richmond has also had problems. She speculates, "Four refineries in a few weeks? Arco and Exxon -- 'technical problems'? 'Routine maintenance'? Humm...Y2K?"

In addition, there was an equally-suspicious report of an explosion recently at TECO ENERGY's thermo-electric Gannon plant near Tampa, Florida. The explosion blew one corner of the outside shell off and set part of the building on fire, killing one person and injuring 45 others. The plant consists of six coal-fired units with a total capacity of 1,270 megawatts. According to industry sources, the unit affected, No. 6, was already shut down for "maintenance." However, after the incident, the other five units were also shut down. The utility said it did not know when the plant, which supplies about one-third of TECO's electric power, would be back in operation.

While there is no confirmation at this time that Y2K is the mysterious thread that links these stories, this is definitely a trend to monitor closely in the future. (Sources: Keith Robertson, Y2K Network, 3/26/1999; Robert Green, REUTERS, 4/8/1999)

Link: http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/ts/story.html?s=v/nm/


(Sources: Y2KNEWSWIRE, 3/22/1999; Ed Yourdon, from his essay "Y2K and the Year of Living Dangerously," 3/23/1999; Adam Entous, REUTERS, 3/22/1999)

In a recent report to the U.S. Congress, the Deputy Director of the FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY (FEMA), Mike Walker, announced that the Year 2000 computer bug now posed little risk to property or lives, and there was no cause for the American public to panic. Walker said while the millennium bug could temporarily disrupt traffic, communications and power systems in parts of the U.S., "there is no need to hoard. There is no need to take money out of banks. There's no need to head for the hills. In fact, those kinds of extreme reactions could actually cause a disaster that otherwise would not happen."

Despite the above statement, FEMA IS hoarding food, according to Y2KNEWSWIRE, which learned that regional FEMA offices are stocked with emergency food and water supplies. Y2KNEWSWIRE comments: "If stockpiling is bad, why are they doing it? Their answer is probably, 'Because we need to have supplies to distribute to people.' But wouldn't it make a lot more sense if people had their own supplies and didn't need to rely on FEMA?"

Y2K guru Steve Davis also points out on his website: "You may be interested to know that while FEMA is [now] only recommending two to three days of preparedness for Y2K, they have traditionally recommended two weeks of preparedness as a short-term disaster supply kit. Due to the conflict that this presented to them, they removed this two-week guidance from their website."

What should we conclude about all of this? Y2K analyst Ed Yourdon posits that there are only a few possible explanations for the government's determined efforts play down the dangers and popularize the "three-day winter snowstorm" metaphor:

- The government is privy to some amazing secrets about a positive outcome to the Y2K situation that veteran software engineers have never heard about.

- The government doesn't really know what will happen, but hopes that a combination of edicts, mandates, orders, and the power of positive thinking will somehow accomplish Y2K miracles.

- The government actually does understand that things are likely to be far worse than publicly admitted, but has decided that it's not a good idea to say so publicly.

Yourdon recommends that each citizen decide which of these three explanations is most plausible, and then, based on that decision, formulate personal plans for dealing with the potential Y2K threat entailed. "As for me," says Yourdon, "I've come to the conclusion that, instead of a three-day bump in the road, it's more likely that Y2K will be 'the year of living dangerously.'" (JG)

Link: http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/ts/story.html?s=v/nm/19990322/ts/bug_1.html

Link: http://www.yourdon.com/articles/y2kdangerous.html

Link: http://www.y2knewswire.com/19990322.htm


(Source: Ashley Dunn, LOS ANGELES TIMES, 4/2/1999)

Survival companies are a sensitive gauge of public perceptions about the Y2K problem. In 1998, the survival business, a once-obscure industry serving campers, survivalists, homesteaders and the Amish, launched into the mainstream, fueled by concerns about critical industries and government agencies and reports of suburban families fleeing for the hills or stockpiling loads of food and supplies because of the Y2K problem. Sales of Year 2000 survival food spiked upward at the beginning of 1999 and water purifiers, electric generators and survival food were selling at their hottest pace ever. However, in the last few months, progress in repairing the computer glitch, saturation of the market, and a subtle shift in public perceptions about the dangers of the millennium bug have dampened sales from their once stratospheric levels. "We're around a little less than an order a day now," says Richard Bauly, owner of BAULY SPECIALTY FOODS INC., a camping food business in Toronto specializing in 20-pound cartons of "BeReady" survival packs. "That's about half the volume of February."

At LEHMAN'S HARDWARE & APPLIANCE INC. in the heart of Ohio's Amish country and one of the nation's biggest suppliers of nonelectrical appliances, not only have sales dropped off, but the type of products being bought has changed as well. Last year, the company sold a record number of large wood-burning cookstoves -- a hard-core survival product for those expecting a long existence without gas or electricity. But in the last few weeks, sales of the $850 to $4,000 stoves have tapered off. According to Galen Lehman, Vice President of Lehman's, customers are now clamoring for propane stoves and kerosene lamps -- products that are better suited for short-term emergencies, since they still require fuel. "It seems like people now are worried about a lesser type of problem," he said.

At SAFE-TREK OUTFITTERS in Bozeman, Mont., one of the oldest names in survival food and equipment, a two-month backlog of orders has largely evaporated. "I would say it's different these days," said Stephen Quayle, Safe-Trek's chief executive. "People are just assuming that Y2K is going to be just a bump in the road." While things have slowed considerably, sales are still running about triple the usual rate. Quayle said that last year one of the company's hottest sellers was its "Gary North pack" -- a 2,344-pound collection of dehydrated fruits, soup mixes and soy-based meat substitutes, named for one of the better-known Y2K alarmists. The $3,999 package can feed four people for a year. More recently, sales have been picking up for the company's "basic" package, designed to feed one person for a few months.

Some store owners believe that the biggest sales rush is yet to come. As Year 2000 draws closer, people who may have been thinking about buying a generator or laying in some emergency food and supplies, might finally start ordering. "Those on the edge, when they hear a few reports of problems, they'll go out and buy [supplies]," predicted Bauly. (JG)

Link: http://www.latimes.com/CNS_DAYS/990402/t000029210.html



The State of California has published a "risk matrix" that outlines potential Y2K-related failures and their consequences. While the OFFICE OF EMERGENCY SERVICES (OES) points out that these are potential impacts only, California emergency services officials are taking the potential threats very seriously. Some of the items in the risk matrix include:

- Loss of operational control of dams, resulting in loss of life, property damage and environmental damage from floods.

- Response delays in emergency services due to communications failures; inoperability of engines, ambulances, aircraft and other rescue support units, resulting in increased civilian deaths and increased property damage.

- Safety system and pollution control system failures in hazardous materials facilities, resulting in explosions, fires, mass casualties, environmental contamination, property damage and delayed essential supplies.

- Failures in medical equipment and facilities, resulting in a reduced ability to cope with disaster casualties.

- Loss of computer control systems in nuclear power plants, resulting in widespread blackouts, meltdown and release of radiation, or a forced shutdown.

- Air traffic control malfunctions resulting in slowed deliveries of medical supplies, aircraft collisions, mass casualties and fires.

- Transportation system gridlock resulting in delays in mail and medical supplies; also inhibiting emergency response services.

- Loss of generation or the transmission of electrical power resulting in food spoilage, failures of security systems, water pressure, medical equipment, heating and cooling, public safety, lighting, and more.

- Loss of handling capacity of solid waste disposal resulting in bio-hazardous waste, methane gas, and environmental pollution.

- Satellite system failures resulting in failed pagers, cell phones, credit cards and bank functions.

Y2KNEWSWIRE observes, "[Had we] authored this risk matrix, we would have been instantly labeled doomsday alarmists, but when a state prints the list, it's called 'responsible strategic risk assessment.'" (JG)

California risk matrix: http://www.oes.ca.gov/oeshomep.nsf/10884826d3b7
edaa882565f0005adc7f/cf95 68f6fb6c678d882566fa00835bbc?OpenDocument

Link: http://www.y2knewswire.com/19990303.htm


(Source: Douglass Carmichael, Y2KWEEKX, 4/5/1999)

Here is a wise and balanced approach to Y2K remediation that analyst Douglass Carmichael promotes in his Y2K business seminars:

1. Don't do anything for Y2K that is not also an investment in a post-Y2K world.

2. This post-Y2K world will be different in some ways: more awareness of technology; greater discernment about costs and the need for clean systems; a shift in choices of technology, such as more Internet, more distributed energy and telecom, wider use of agriculture in local variants.

3. Y2K is just another outside challenge. Use it as an occasion to reinvent markets and partnerships.

4. Make sure Y2K efforts are integrated with your organizational strategy.

5. Y2K exposes weaknesses in management structure. Recognize it for what it is: a challenge that can only be met by developing more internal honesty, greater awareness of external forces, and quality communication.

6. If your organization is to continue, your employees must chose to come to work. This means that coming to work must be attractive and meet the needs of the employees towards family and dependents.

7. Employees are embedded in their communities and will only feel secure if their communities feel secure. You need to reach out to the community level and be a leader for community coherence and resiliency.

8. Y2K is interesting. Approach it not as maintenance, but as an adventure in building awareness and knowledge that will benefit your organization. (JG)

Link: http://tmn.com/shakespeareandtao



(Source: Tom Atlee, personal correspondence, 4/5/1999)

"Here are five new resources that look pretty good to me," says Y2K analyst Tom Atlee:

"The Year 2000 Problem: An Opportunity to Build Sustainable Community" by Doug Mosel: This study circle (the package has both study materials and a process guide) provides inspiration and ideas for building neighborhoods and communities that are not only prepared for Y2K, but more sustainable and better places to live. This is a great course to do with friends or as part of a Y2K community group. It is free at: <http://www.co intelligence.org/DM_intro.html>.

"Y2K Bug: 101 Things You'll Need to Be Prepared" by Charlie Magee: A 48-page booklet with cartoons, humor and common-sense insight to help you prepare for potential Y2K disruptions in your life in a simple, rational, step-by-step manner. Sometimes, less IS more.

"Action Y2K: A GrassRoots Guide to Year 2000" by Richard Thomas Wright and Cathryn Wellner: A guide for the coming millennium with solutions for communities, businesses, and individuals. This book maintains a positive outlook and approach, showing that community action groups working to build resilience and capacity can tip the balance toward the positive side of any Year 2000 problem. (250) 296-4432 or <http://grassrootsgroup.com/y2kguide.htm>.

"Just in Case: Dispatches from the Front Lines of the Y2K Crisis" edited by Michael Brownlee, Barbara Stahura and Robert Yehling: An up-to-date book with a transformational perspective, including 38 pages of transformational articles by Meg Wheatley, Tom Atlee, Gordon Davidson, and others. (888) 267-4446 or <http://www.JustInCaseY2K.com/>.

"Y2K: A Family Survival Guide" narrated by Leonard Nimoy: a high-minded and practical Y2K video, with a measured and thoughtful approach that covers the history and complexity of the problem, and puts the philosophical emphasis on a collaborative, community response. (JG)

Many of these resources can also be ordered through NHNE's link to AMAZON.COM:



(Source: Jim Lord, WESTERGAARD YEAR 2000, 3/22/1999)

Y2K analyst Jim Lord's book, "A Survival Guide for the Year 2000 Problem," is now available on the Internet at no charge. Also available from the same site are over a year's back issues of Lord's "Y2K Reality Watch" newsletter. (JG)

Jim Lord's website: http://www.SurviveY2K.com



Mormon Gary Pope has written an 85-page emergency preparedness manual that can be downloaded for free from his website. ADOBE ACROBAT is needed to read it, and you must fill in a registration form before downloading. A printed copy of the manual is also available for $15. (JG)

Emergency Preparedness Manual Website: http://www.mormon.com/epm/download/index.htm


(Source: Cresson Kearny, Nuclear War Survival Skills Website)

Cresson Kearny's "Nuclear War Survival Skills" is now available on-line for free. According to Y2K analyst Gary North, "This is a crucial manual." You can download it or print it out.

"Nuclear War Survival Skills" Manual: http://oism.org/nwss



Marc Pinneo, author of "A Layman's Guide to the Year 2000 Computer Crisis," is compiling a directory of Y2K community preparedness groups on a state-by-state basis. He is offering a free web page to groups that would like to be included in the directory. Pinneo can be emailed at: "MarcP@ocweb.com". (JG)

Link: http://www.ocweb.com/y2k/Y2KGroups.htm



Starting on May 9, 1999, the Y2K UPDATE REPORT will feature a special ongoing online event providing useful information about Y2K from a woman's perspective. Scheduled presenters include Wendy McClelland (Biz Resource), Marlene Brown (Technotouch), Karen Anderson (Y2K Women), Eileen Buckholtz (Y2K Run), Jackie Kessler (Y2K Survival Guide), Paloma O'Reilly (Cassandra Project), Teresa Wilson (Y2K News), Meg Wheatley (Berkana), Natasha Flazynski (Y2K Links), Eva Rosenberg (Y2K Money Issues), Susan Conniry Urban (Survival School), and Jeanne Boyd (Why 2000).

Topics include:

1. Preparing Your Business For Y2K
2. Community Action Planning Program
3. Best "Home" Practices Program
4. Keeping Your Family Together during Y2K (JG)

The Y2K Update Report: http://www.y2kupdatereport.com/mothers/index.html



With Y2K approaching, many people are looking for alternative ways of pumping water should power be interrupted. DEAN BENNETT SUPPLY COMPANY sells the "Stalwart Emergency Hand Pump" that can fit into a well alongside a submersible pump, without removing the submersible -- that way it is always ready for use. The company has been selling windmills, traditional hand pumps, and pump jacks since 1965. They also offer a free catalog. (JG)

Dean Bennett Supply Company
Phone: (800) 621-4291
Website: http://www.deanbennett.com
eMail: pumpsdbs@aol.com



(Source: Laura A. Bruce, BANKRATE.COM, 2/12/1999)

Having trouble keeping track of the different Y2K groups in circulation, such as Gary North and his hardcore end-of-civilization survivalists, corporate America, X-Files conspiracy geeks, religious extremists, and old-style tax-protest survivalists who knew something would replace the Reds? BANKRATE.COM has a handy chart to spell out the similarities and differences. Here is the lowdown, for example, on "nouveau survivalists":

What They Believe: Not as convinced of imminent destruction as North and his followers. They want to be ready just in case. They're prepared, but not panicky. They're stockpiling a couple of weeks' worth or canned and dried food, water and maybe a generator.

Motto: Look at the Post Office -- do you trust the government to handle this?

Theme Song: "The Morning After" (theme song from the movie "The Poseidon Adventure").

Favorite Food: Wine and cheese. (They are saving the canned stuff for later.)

How They'll Spend New Year's Eve: At home, sipping champagne, thinking it would be cool if the lighted ball at Times Square goes dark as it drops. (JG)

Link: http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/y2k/19990212a.asp


(Source: Marco Commisso, TECH TALK, 3/8/1999)

First it was Cabbage Patch Kids, then Beanie Babies. Now another toy-induced craze has hit the country -- "Bean Bugs for the Millennium." BIANET, a Texas company that makes bean-stuffed cartoon characters has launched a new product line called "MicroBytes," featuring "Techie," a computer nerd that's blue in the face and "Glitch," an evil, but cuddly, Y2K bug. Each month until the millennium, the company plans to offer Glitch in a different outfit to represent a holiday or computer problem. For instance, March features "Hoarder Glitch" with a backpack containing a gallon of water, a pound of sugar, a box of penicillin, some coffee and other supplies in case the lights go out. July's "Rich Glitch" character has dollar signs for eyes and is wrapped with ticker tape. In October, the mean little buggy turns green and becomes "Nuclear Glitch." Each month, Glitch is accompanied by other bean-stuffed computer paraphernalia such as "Joy" the joystick, "Scurry" the mouse, "CD ROMeo" and "Sergio" the power surge. Designed by cartoonist Harvey Siegel Williams, creator of Rocky and Bullwinkle, the toys are designed to educate children and complement a series of children's books scheduled to hit the shelves this summer. Bean Bugs for the Millennium cost between $9.95 and $12.95. Sales are brisk. (JG)

Link: http://www.amcity.com/southflorida/stories/1999/03/08/newscolumn1.html?h=y2k



The stories in this week's NHNE Y2K Report were drawn, in part, from the following news sources:




Sheri Nakken (Y2K NETWORK):



Copyright 1999 by NewHeavenNewEarth

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